British Intelligence Ukraine war map as of Sep. 28

 British Intelligence Ukraine war map as of Sep. 28

British Intelligence Update as of Sep 28

The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have lost approximately 90 fixed-wing aircraft in combat since February 2022. It has also been flying some of its combat aircraft types far more intensively than in peace time.

All aircraft have a projected lifespan, in flying hours. It is highly likely that with this extra wartime use, Russia is eating into many of its airframes’ lifespans far more quickly than the VKS planned for.

The need for extra maintenance is complicated by a shortage of spare parts because of increasing demand and international sanctions. The VKS maintains the ability to surge sortie rates over occupied Ukraine.

However, as the war continues much longer than the Russian Ministry of Defence originally planned for, wear and tear of airframes is likely to have reduced the viability of the VKS’s long-term tactical air power.