British Intelligence Ukraine war map as of Sep. 16

 British Intelligence Ukraine war map as of Sep. 16

British Intelligence Update as of Sep 16

Between October 2022 and March 2023, Russia focused long-range strikes against Ukraine’s national energy infrastructure. Air launched cruise missiles (ALCMs), especially the modern AS-23a KODIAK, were at the heart of most of these strike missions. Russia uses strategic bomber aircraft to release these munitions from deep within Russian territory.

Open source reports suggest that since April 2023, ALCM expenditure rates have reduced, while Russian leaders have highlighted efforts to increase the rate of cruise missile production.

Russia is therefore likely able to generate a significant stockpile of ALCMs. There is a realistic possibility Russia will again focus these weapons against Ukrainian infrastructure targets over the winter.